Modelling Financial Distress in the Nigerian Banking Sector
Authors:
ISSN: 3057-3939 (Print) | 305-39207 (online)
Publication Date:
10-01-2025
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The study seeks to develop a model for bank sustainability through the prediction of
financial distress in the Nigerian banking sector, which could also find applicability for
the entire Africa region. The banking sector in any economy is largely important due to its
ability to redistribute funds from the surplus segment to the deficit segment of the economy,
hence, developing a distress model to predict financial distress in the banking sector helps
to enhance the sustainability of corporate financial institutions in Africa. The study utilises
a total of 2,205 point-observations consisting of a balanced sample of distressed and
non-distressed banks. The analysis involves the use of the multiple discriminant analysis
in developing a model for the accurate prediction of financial distress among Nigerian
listed banks, necessitated by the inherent shortcomings in extant prediction models. The
study achieves its goal of accurate distress prediction by developing a concise model that
adequately predicts financial distress among Nigerian banks with a success rate of 91.4%
and has high predictive ability for long range distress forecasts extending beyond five years.
It is recommended that relevant regulatory authorities should experiment this new model
in testing the ‘health’ status of banks at the end of every financial year to ascertain their true
state of affairs. This will assist in taking proactive measures to guide against any form of
inherent anomalies which could snowball into disastrous outcomes.