Journal

Modelling Financial Distress in the Nigerian Banking Sector

Authors:

Adeyemi Aderin

.

ISSN: 3057-3939 (Print) | 305-39207 (online)

Publication Date:

10-01-2025
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The study seeks to develop a model for bank sustainability through the prediction of financial distress in the Nigerian banking sector, which could also find applicability for the entire Africa region. The banking sector in any economy is largely important due to its ability to redistribute funds from the surplus segment to the deficit segment of the economy, hence, developing a distress model to predict financial distress in the banking sector helps to enhance the sustainability of corporate financial institutions in Africa. The study utilises a total of 2,205 point-observations consisting of a balanced sample of distressed and non-distressed banks. The analysis involves the use of the multiple discriminant analysis in developing a model for the accurate prediction of financial distress among Nigerian listed banks, necessitated by the inherent shortcomings in extant prediction models. The study achieves its goal of accurate distress prediction by developing a concise model that adequately predicts financial distress among Nigerian banks with a success rate of 91.4% and has high predictive ability for long range distress forecasts extending beyond five years. It is recommended that relevant regulatory authorities should experiment this new model in testing the ‘health’ status of banks at the end of every financial year to ascertain their true state of affairs. This will assist in taking proactive measures to guide against any form of inherent anomalies which could snowball into disastrous outcomes.